The Future

The future. Most empires have their time in the sun and inevitably decline. Reversing a decline is difficult because that requires undoing a lot that's already been done, but it's possible. By looking at these indicators, it's pretty easy to see which stage of the big cycle an empire is in, how fit it is, and whether its condition is improving or worsening, which can help one estimate how many years it has left. Still, these estimates aren't precise and the cycle can be extended if those in charge pay attention to their vital signs and improve them.

For example, knowing that a person is 60 years old, how fit they are, whether they smoke or not and a few other basic vital signs, one can estimate the person's longevity. One can do that with empires and their vital signs too. It won't be precise, but it will be broadly indicative and give clear direction on steps to take to increase longevity. It's most often the case that a nation's greatest war is with itself over whether or not it can make the hard decisions needed to sustain success.

As for what we need to do, it comes down to just two things - earn more than we spend, and treat each other well. All other things I mentioned - strong education, inventiveness, being competitive and all the rest - are just ways of getting at these two things. It's easy to measure if we're doing them. So like people who want to get fit, let's get on the program and improve our vitals. Let's do that individually and collectively.

My goal for sharing this picture of how the world works and a few principles for dealing with it well is to help you recognize where we are and the challenges we face, and to make the wise decisions needed to navigate these times well. Since there is a lot more to discuss and we are out of time, you can learn more in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. And I look forward to continuing this conversation at economicprinciples.org and on social media. Thank you, and may the force of evolution be with you. (dramatic music)